Who will Win the Virginia Governor Race? Cuccinelli or McAuliffe

Politisite Political Projections

Politisite Political Projections takes in to consideration many factors when utilizing a particular poll for our model.

We weigh polls differently based on their previous general election accuracy.

We toss polls that have a Margin of Error (MoE) that exceeds +/-5%.

We further take in to consideration the pollsters assumptions of the makeup of the electorate by considering the average PVI for the State polled.

Next we look at momentum of each of the candidates.  This is similar to momentum investing in stocks.   We look at the polling data and assign a momentum figure based on statistics that suggest whether a candidate has a positive, negative, or neutral momentum that could translate into a higher percentage outcome on Election Day.  This is the reason we call our model a “projection” rather than “prediction.”  One could argue for either word.

While Nate Silver at FiveThrityEight says he adds a “secret sauce” to come up with his predictions for election outcomes, we too have that additional secret something.  Since we are located in the South, we will equate our “special formulations” to the secret formula in Cocoa Cola.

In the Virginia Gubernatorial race to be held on November 5th, 2013 we  See normal upward momentum for both the  Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli as voters more from undecided to making a final decision before the election.  The Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis has some downward pressure as voters realize that although they are unhappy with the current state of a two party system, have come to the realization that a vote for the Libertarian candidate will ultimately put a Democrat in the Governors Mansion.

Based on pure poll aggregation and weighting, Democrat Terry McAuliffe would win by a seven (7) point margin with 48.7% of the vote.  But by judging past Libertarian voting behavior in Virginia, we think that the 9.2% current polling for Sarvis is overstated.

Based on our careful analysis the Politisite Political Projection is as Follows:

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Take the Online Poll – Obama and Congress Approval Poll – Vote!

Take part in the New Politisite Political Poll in partnership with 1World Online  – Six questions on your approval or disapproval of President Obama, Congress, Republicans, Democrats, Tea Party and Your Congressman’s job performance.  Vote Here and express your views!

 

Liberals now say Politifact is Pants on Fire why? See Politifact lie of the Year

After our being linked  by Politifact this year as being nonfactual and our consequential attack that Politifact is not always Factual.  Politifact puts out it’s 2011 Lie of the year, and it is not on us or the GOP.  It is the Democrat Big Lie of 2011.  The air smells a little sweeter today.

via Liberals now say Politifact is Pants on Fire why? See Politifact lie of the Year.

 

Weinergate or 2012 what’s important?

Editors Note By Albert N. Milliron

Congressman Anthony Weiner was a Democratic rock star not unlike the Young Bill Clinton or Barack Obama.  He was sure to be a shoe in for Mayor of New York City and even had some folks looking at him as a Democratic version of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

All that changed in a Flash, literally a flash of a camera that posted a view for all to see of a portion of a Congressman most are not interested in seeing.

Weiner had a way with making proposed government cuts by Republicans look comical and ineffectual.  He often took to the floor and made fun of the GOP attempts to kill NPR’s Car Talk or sacrificing Big Bird.  He was fun to watch, even if you sat on the other side of the issues.

Maybe that is the reason right-wing blogs and commentators took so much joy watching him come down as news of his Twitter Sexting, phone sex, and chatting up a porn star came to light over the weekend.

Having a last name like ‘Weiner’ where the best fun off all, as those of us liked to use word play had a field day.  Political Pundits became political punsters and the hits just kept on coming.

But when it was all over, and the fun turned into the realization that Weiner is a Congressman representing the people of New York. It became clear that he is just another politician to add to the list, both Democrat and Republican, that have failed the American people in fixing the problems that are the most important to Americans  in 2011:  The Economy, Jobs, the National Debt, failing Infrastructure, the role of Government, Education, Taxes, Entitlement programs and National Defense.

While Weiner was Sexting, Our Government is failing.  But what we did for a weekend was focus on the failing of a Congressman.  Maybe Weiner helped us in a way, like going to a movie when the world is falling apart outside the theater.

For whatever reason, it is time to return to what is important.  Whether Anthony Weiner should resign is not the question the Collective should be asking, that is for the people in the Ethics committee and the people in his district in New York. What we should be looking for is answers on our growing national debt, unemployment, etc.

I am reminded that all of us have personal failings, and it is always easier to point at the failings of others, but when it is all said and done, we must all look in the mirror and account for our own missteps.

It is time to get back on the road that leads to the recovery of America.  It is easy to focus on Congressman Weiner, but by doing so like peering through a pair of Binoculars, it defocuses on other things, things we need to be focused on like a laser beam.  That area of focus should be the 2012 Election.

via You Choose: Focus on Anthony Weiner, Defocus on the 2012 Election | Politisite.

Are the Republicans using the Democrat play book on the Patriot Act?

Republicans will tell you that the 2010 election was a referendum on the Democrats and they way they pushed through bills in the House and Senate like a Freight train.  The GOP complained that the Democrats pushed bills with little debate, no allowance for Amendments, and late night votes.

This same party, who said they would restore the process to the people are now going to push through the Patriot Act Extensions bill in much the same way as they had complained about the Pelosi run House.

The Bill will have one hour of debate, no amendments, and will be voted on late in the evening when less eyes are on CSPAN.

I know, the Patriot Act sounds so Patriotic.  Let me help you out a bit, whatever a bill is titled, you can count on it being quite the opposite.  Anyone remember the “Jobs” Bill?

This from the Hill

House Republicans are poised to pass an extension of the Patriot Act on Monday evening after a procedural snafu sent the measure down to defeat last week.

Republicans will meet at noon and begin debate at 2 p.m. on an extension of Patriot Act surveillance. A vote on the extension is expected Monday evening.

The measure was defeated last week when Republican leadership attempted to force it through on a fast-track procedure that required a two-thirds majority. Monday evening’s vote will require only a simply majority and is almost certain to pass.

via House set to pass Patriot Act extension on second try – The Hill’s Floor Action.

What is in the Patriot Act extension bill?

Read the Rest  The GOP to pass Patriot Act extension like the Democrats | Politisite.